Nutrien Analysis – March 2022

Nutrien (TSX:NTR, NYSE: NTR) is a publicly-listed potash, nitrogen and phosphate producer. With all three being above their ten-year average price, potash and nitrogen are set to gain further (phosphate may gain a little too but to a lesser extent). Belarus and Russia are the second and third, respectively, biggest producers of potash worldwide behind only Canada. Russia is the fourth-biggest producer of Nitrogen and of Phosphate. With fear of sanctions and actual sanctions slowly materializing, Russia and Belarus (a Russian ally) are slowly being cut off from the world. Some big shipping companies like Maersk have stopped serving Russia altogether. The cost of war will start to weigh heavily on exports of these two countries, who have waged a largely unprovoked war in Ukraine. I believe this could positively affect revenues and earnings of Nutrien as prices go higher and spare capacity is brought online.

According to its annual report: “We have 4 million tonnes of available potash capacity that can be brought online with limited time and capital in response to increasing global demand or due to supply interruptions.”

Sources: Company reports.

I do not have any positions in any stocks mentioned in this article.

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