Nebius (Nasdaq: NBIS) is a technology company building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry. Its businesses include an AI-centric cloud platform built for intensive AI workloads, a full-stack infrastructure for AI, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud platforms, and tools and services for developers.
“With proprietary cloud software architecture and hardware designed in-house (including servers, racks and data center design), Nebius Group gives AI builders the compute, storage, managed services and tools they need to build, tune and run their models.”
ARR: annualized run-rate revenue
“December 2024 ARR for Nebius was $90 million,”
“Based on contracts already in place, March ARR will be at least $220 million, and we have additional potential deals in the pipeline. “Given this momentum, as well as the anticipated impact of additional data center capacity and Blackwell GPUs coming on-stream later this year, I am pleased to confirm that our projected December 2025 ARR of $750 million to $1 billion is well within reach.””
Market Cap: Hovering around $5bn
Revenue (TTM): $117.5m
Product development (TTM): $129.7m
Sales, general and administrative: $277.8m
Net income (TTM): -$396.9m
Cash and cash equivalents: $2.5bn
Price-to-book value: 1.47
Beta: 0.85
Nebius also has a 28% stake in Clickhouse (valued at $2 billion after a $250 million Series B funding round in October 2021). According to google’s AI: “ClickHouse is a fast, open-source, column-oriented database management system (DBMS) optimized for online analytical processing (OLAP), allowing users to generate analytical reports using SQL queries in real-time, especially for large datasets.”
Nebius is set for explosive growth over this year. Its outlook plus its low correlation to the market make it an attractive investment and will be subject to less sea-sawing volatility, a side-effect of Trump’s tariffs. It is currently employing 850 top-tier AI engineers and its founder was involved in creating Yandex, a Russian website with many facets such as a search engine, maps, emails, social media and cloud computing. With lots of cash on-hand and experienced management, Nebius is set to skyrocket.
*I own and recommend shares of Nebius*
—————-UPDATE June 2025—————
2025 Q1 revenue: $55.3M
2025 Q1 ARR: $249M
2025 revenue guidance: $500-700m (does not yet reflect the deconsolidation of Toloka and will be updated for this with Q2 2025 financial results). “…will no longer include Toloka’s results in Nebius’ consolidated financial statements and will instead report its stake as equity method investment.”
2025 Adj. EBITDA: Reach positive during 2H 2025E (though remain negative for the year)
ClickHouse Stake ~$1.68B (28% of $6B)
Toloka AI Stake ~$420M
Avride Stake ~$2.3B (83% of $2.78B)
TripleTen: Not publicly valued
Cash and cash equivalents: $1.447B
From MLQ: “Given the current market capitalization of approximately $9.6 billion, the market is effectively valuing Nebius’s core AI infrastructure business at around $3.8 billion. This implies a valuation of just 3.8 times the forward ARR, which is ridiculously low for a high-growth AI infrastructure company with a stacked venture portfolio, and ex-Yandex (aka the Russian Google) team.” 3.8x forward sales? yet currently 55x trailing 12 months sales?
Q1 press release: “Strong balance sheet with low interest burden and ample financing options, with the ability to monetize non-core assets in order to fund core business”
Q1 Letter: “As we have minimal debt, we will be opportunistic in tapping capital markets for more traditional types of financing, while seeking to minimize dilution to our shareholders and to be prudent with respect to any future debt load. Given our mid-term growth prospects, fueled by our lower cost-of-capital funding opportunities, and coupled with our relatively stable cost structure, we see a clear path to building a high-growth business with a strong margin profile that can generate solid, sustainable free cash flows.”
*I still own and recommend shares of Nebius*
Devlin Demontigny 